An Empirical Evaluation of the Impact of New York's Bail Reform on Crime Using Synthetic Controls

We conduct an empirical evaluation of the impact New York's bail reform on crime. York State's Bail Elimination Act went into effect January 1, 2020, eliminating money and pretrial detention for nearly all misdemeanor nonviolent felony defendants. Our analysis effects aggregate crime rates after informs understanding general deterrence. a synthetic control comparative case study reform. focus post-intervention changes in assault, theft, burglary, robbery, drug crimes, constructing dataset from publicly reported data 27 large municipalities. findings, including placebo checks other robustness checks, show that there is no significant crime; burglary we similarly have null findings but also more variable so these are deemed less conclusive.